![\"bayes\"](\"https:\/\/peterkreutzer.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/bayes.jpg\")
<\/a>What is also clear is that we have a hard time understanding the nature of a prediction, which is\u00a0why Silver not only says what he thinks is going to happen but also offers the odds that he’ll be wrong. To determine these odds Silver turns to Bayes’ Theorum and the more modern Bayesians, who have developed a way to measure\u00a0uncertainty in a prediction based on\u00a0the work of the English statistician and minister, Thomas Bayes (pictured).<\/p>\nThis truth in packaging is what makes even Silver’s\u00a0miscalls informational.<\/p>\n
The mathematician Jordan Ellenburg takes a look at how many of Silver’s predictions will be wrong today<\/a>\u00a0in Slate, if Silver’s self-claimed odds of being wrong are correct. It won’t spoil the fun of reading the piece for me to tell you that Silver should be wrong about 2.5 senate races.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" We all love predictions, and Nate Silver has proven himself adept\u00a0at making them, so it’s understandable attention turns his way on Election Day. What is also clear is that we have a hard time understanding the nature of a prediction, which is\u00a0why Silver not only says what he thinks is going to happen but also … Continue reading LINK: It’s Election Day and Someone is Writing About Nate Silver!<\/span>